Revisiting My Horrendous Predictions for the 2008 College Football Season

If there’s one thing any regular visitors to this site noticed during football season, I’m wrong with great frequency. Looking over my predictions, some were correct – USF’s George Selvie fell far short of the 20 sacks he predicted for himself, recording a mere 5.5. However, this contributed heavily to my Orange Bowl prediction going into the toilet by mid-September, as Clemson and USF were never a threat to crash Dolphins Stadium on New Year’s. That’ll teach me for betting on Tommy Bowden.

Louisville helped me out a lot by beating only USF in the Big East, then promptly losing to Syracuse and finishing 1-6, good enough for last place in the conference.

Utah made the Sugar Bowl and Texas Tech made the Cotton Bowl, so my BCS predictions continued to go very well. I pushed on taking Indiana for more wins than Michigan as both finished 3-9.

My Syracuse predictions were far more incorrect than those for the Big East or NCAA at large. When the only prediction you get right is related to eating Dome Dogs, you know you are a shitty prognosticator.

So what have we learned?

• Don’t trust Clemson or USF – still
• When your team isn’t very good, it’s hard to predict who will do anything
• If you are considering asking me for gambling advice, you are probably better off just setting your money on fire.

Enjoy your New Year’s Day orgy of sporting events and I look forward to not being such a moron – or horrendous blogger – in 2009.

Happy New Year, Orange Fans

I might be the worst blogger in the history of blogging, but that doesn’t mean I’ve completely forgotten about you all out there.

2008 wasn’t all so bad, though missing out on another NCAA tourney in hoops definitely stung, and, well… football continues to leave a LOT to be desired. Nevertheless, we appear to be doing a good job of building up a quality staff to attempt to resurrect us from the dregs.

We’re going strong in men’s hoops as we charge into 2009 and another dominating lacrosse season will be underway before you can spell Teewaraton.

So to you and yours, may you bask in the Orange-y glow of a wonderful 2009 full of big wins and lacking in criminal activity by Syracuse basketball players.

Ouch.

Well, it’s been out there as being borderline official for a little while now, but there’s something about it becoming official that makes the sting come back a little. Really, Skip? 12 million bones wasn’t quite what you were looking for? I’ll bet Turner Gill would love a nice $12 million gig.

Speaking from a very petty, annoyed and vengeful part of my heart… I wish you and your Pirates ill, Skip. Here’s to going 6-6 next season and not getting that ND job you’ve got your boner heart set on.

Weighing In On The Coach Search

I may not be very good at running a blog, but one thing I definitely am good at is spouting off opinions and talking about things as if I know a lot about them. Here are my thoughts on the recent developments in the ongoing search for the next head football coach at Syracuse.

• I’m not remotely upset that we didn’t land Lane Kiffin. I think he’ll do a fine job with Tennessee and I hope he’s able to get his dad Monte to join him. That’d be pretty special for the two of them. I just never thought it would be all that great of a fit and that it was too complicated of a sell. You’d have been hiring a coach who was trashed in a very public manner by one of the more prominent Syracuse alumni in the football world. Additionally, most of the SU football family would probably have balked at the notion of DG hiring another one of Pete Carroll’s guys given how well it worked out the first time. On top of that, what are his major acheivements? Not killing Al Davis? Convincing 18 year old males that they might want to play college football in a warm area with an abundance of exposure and attractive women? I’d say the former is harder than the latter, but it doesn’t make him a quality head coach.
• Um, we’re not getting Mike Leach or Chris Petersen and we most likely won’t have a shot at Tommy Tuberville. Let’s please just put that to rest right now. Yeah, it’s fun to speculate, but can we be serious for a minute? We’re not really offering them anything that they can’t get already (except the now-jobless Tubs), and for the foreseeable future they’d be doing without some of the things they’ve grown to love (i.e.: scoring, defense, winning, etc.).
• 

  Possibly the most frightening picture of Randy Edsall I've ever seen, and a far cry from the grouch who's sick of talking about his alma mater.

  Randy Edsall seems like a real sourpuss. He clearly does not deal well with speculation, and it’s eerily reminiscent of Nick “I’m not going to be the Alabama coach” Saban. Which makes me think that maybe – just maybe – he’s still in the running.

• Our fling with Chip Kelly was fun while it lasted.
• Turner Gill, Mike Locksley and Skip Holtz still seem to be our most likely candidates, though I’m leaning toward agreeing with others that Skip will probably hold out another year and hope Charlie Weis blows it at Notre Dame.
• Mark Whipple, Kevin Rogers and Doug Marrone should be in the hunt only if we fall through on all of our options who are currently in the college game, actively recruiting and coaching 18-23 year olds.
• I highly doubt that either Steve Addazio or Dan Mullen – the rumored Florida assistants – will be headed our way. Why leave that gig to freeze your ass off and possibly fall on your face?

Basically, I’m highly skeptical that this is going to end well. Unless you describe this ending well as Daryl Gross getting fired in three years. In which case, you might love how this ends.

My rankings – based solely on personal preference of realistic candidates – are as follows:

#1 – Butch Jones – Central Michigan: He’s like a poor man’s Mike Leach, and his team’s defensive performance against Eastern Michigan definitely falls in line with that statement.

#2 – Turner Gill – Buffalo: As the buzz around him has said, if you can win at Buffalo, you can win anywhere.

#3 – Mike Locksley – Illinois (Offensive Coordinator): This guy has one hell of a track record for recruiting. Even if he’s an awful head coach and we have to find someone new in four years, hopefully he’ll at least leave the pantry well-stocked.

#4 – Skip Holtz – East Carolina: Wherever he leaves ECU for, he’ll do well. Until he leaves that school for South Bend.

#5 – Brady Hoke – Ball State: He’s done a great job with the Cardinals this season but he may want to cash in his MAC chips now while he still has Nate Davis and MiQuale Lewis.

What’s That I See? A Program That Wins AND Generates Revenue?

It’s sooooo fucking good to see you, Syracuse Orange basketball. In case you didn’t hear your older brother Syracuse Orange football has been getting his ass kicked a whole lot lately, though not for a lack of want-to or flashes.

Seriously though, despite my preference for football I don’t think I’m crazy for stating that I am significantly more excited about basketball right now. Sure we got a scare from the Richmond Spiders (man am glad I wasn’t watching college hoops yet in 1991) but be honest – you knew coming into this season that these guys were going to test your ability to stay sane during the last 3 minutes of some games.

The formula hasn’t changed much around here lately. When playing a team that is good but not quite as good as the Orange, Syracuse tends to allow them to hang around, build up a little bit of a lead in the 2nd half and then proceed to make it more interesting than necessary as the final seconds are winding down. I’m amazed I even get nervous anymore when watching. I should just wait until it’s over and instantly switch into irritated or elated mode.

I didn’t catch much of the glorified exhibition game against Lemoyne so last night was my first chance to really see some vintage Devendorf slashing to the basket. It does make me a tad uncomfortable that he possibly also used that left hand to assault a female student, but let’s be serious… if you were told you had to pick one player from this year’s hoops team that you think would do something as has been described – based solely on appearance – you’d say Devo.

Hopefully this matter will be resolved and this young woman was never actually assaulted. You’d really hate to see what could be a magical run this season jump the tracks over something as stupid and uncalled for as hitting a woman in the face.

In the meantime, let’s enjoy this two-game winning streak. I know it seems silly, but I’ve been dying for one of those since about March.

In My Face

Right off the bat, I first want to acknowledge how disappointed I am in myself for going so long without a post. For the six of you who have been upset with the lack of new content, I deeply apologize. Turns out this blogging stuff takes more time than I thought. I’ll be setting aside more time in the coming weeks to make sure this doesn’t happen again.

Now… how about that feisty performance from our Orange? Just when the Cardinals faithful were beginning to drink the Kragthorpe Kool-Aid, they get handled by Syracuse for much of the game. Luckily, our guys decided to finish this one out… a welcome change of pace from the almosts we’ve experienced in the past 3+ years.

So I was ecstatic with the rest of the remaining Dome faithful when Bruce’s pick sealed the deal, right? Wrong. Because I’m a complete douchebag, I wasn’t at the game despite the fact that I have season tickets. So if you’re keeping score at home, I’ve witnessed the following games in the flesh this season:

• Akron 42, Syracuse 28
• Penn State 55, Syracuse 13
• Syracuse 30, Northeastern 21 (woo-hoo…)
• Pittsburgh 34, Syracuse 24
• and I got in a roadie at Tampa – South Florida 45, Syracuse 13

Now, I think a compelling case can be made that heading into Saturday’s game, the opportunity cost of attending the game instead of being able to watch it and Texas/Texas Tech was at least worth evaluating. I’ve always prided myself on being a fan that sticks it out no matter how bad it is. I dislike the heading for the gates early strategy. Yet my roommate and I talked ourselves out of going to what may very well be Greggers’ last win. Sometimes as a sports fan, you really hate yourself.

But enough about me.

Some observations following the game:

• It’s beginning to look more and more like burning Antwon Bailey’s redshirt hasn’t been the atrocious decision it seemed to be at the time. True, it’s hard to make a very compelling argument for the timing of the move, but with Doug Hogue and Delone Carter both having different issues the past few weeks, we needed someone to give Curtis “Now What” Brinkley a break from time to time. After a very impressive run, it’s clear he has the ability to be a factor. Next season, he’s very likely to be featured much more often.
• Now what, indeed, Curtis. To say that we didn’t all doubt the ability of the Orange to pull this upset off again would border on being downright fallacious. Sure, Louisville made some rather untimely gaffes that contributed heavily to the game’s outcome, but I don’t feel bad for them. We’ve watched a prolonged gaffe for over 3 seasons. It’s about time some of these plays happened in our favor.
• Beware of the B word: obviously, every game is an elimination game for the Orange when it comes to going bowling at this point. But this Saturday’s games will play a huge role in the rest of the season. A win at Rutgers is a must, but watch Notre Dame. The Irish have struggled to put games away this season and may be lacking a bit for confidence (though not talent). With tough road games coming up at Boston College and Navy, how will ND respond? Also, we get UConn coming out of their bye week. The Huskies can’t stop shooting themselves in the foot as of late. If they get too conservative against us we should be able to hang around with them. All of this is very unlikely, maybe a 5% chance at best that we’re able to head to Cincinnati at the end of the month with a shot at a bowl. But Saturday’s win means its still possible.

Saturday Pick’em – Week 8

Just gonna bang this one out real quick. I’m leaving work early to head to Syracuse for the Suns/Nuggets game which will be followed by what might be the busiest weekend in the history of the sports fan. More details to come next week.

The picks:

Connecticut at Rutgers (+1.5):
Wouldn’t it be nice if this was just a pillow fight to see who was less of a doormat in the conference? Instead, we have a one-loss team coming off a pasting at Chapel Hill taking on a one-win team coming off a couple close losses in the conference. I feel like the Huskies aren’t as good as their 5-1 record and the Knights aren’t quite as bad as their 1-5 record, but I think this year’s trends hold. UConn will grind it out and play solid defense, try not to get every punt blocked and pull out a close win.
Final score: Connecticut 20, Rutgers 13.

Georgia Tech at Clemson (+3):
Call me crazy, but I think GT is in trouble here. CJ Spiller won’t play which hurts the Clemson rushing attack, but James Davis is talented enough to carry the load. Feed him the ball and work in some efficient throws for Willy Korn to keep the triple option on the sideline. The Tigers should be able to pull it out without Tommy Bowden in the way anymore and with a lot to prove to validate even a little of the preseason hype.
Final score: Clemson 27, Georgia Tech 21.

Middle Tennessee at Louisville (no line at time of pick):
This was a shootout last year but I just don’t see these teams coming close to 100 points combined again. Louisville’s defense is still suspect, though, so this one could still be conducive to some scoring. MT hasn’t been lighting it up offensively but I still think they’ll punch a couple in. Cards roll, though.
Final score: Louisville 38, Middle Tennessee 20.

#23 Pittsburgh at Navy (+3):
This is exactly the kind of game we’d expect Pitt to blow in the Wannstedt Era. Navy will be out to control clock and run the Pitt defense ragged. Last year’s game produced a 48-45 double OT win for Navy, but this doesn’t seem to be the same old Pitt since getting their wake-up call from Bowling Green. Navy will get their rushing yards because that’s what Navy does, but Pitt will pick up the W.
Final score: Pittsburgh 30, Navy 21.

Week 8 Semi-Flimsy, Probably Unlikely But I’m Picking It Anyway Road Dog Upset Special
Wisconsin (+3.5) over Iowa
The Badgers are reeling after opening Big Ten play with a three-game losing streak. I’m willing to forgive the Ohio State and Penn State losses based on quality of opponent, but if they could have stopped the Buckeyes and not effed away the game at Michigan (which is becoming a worse loss every week) they’d be 5-1 and still ranked pretty high with only a loss to JoePa & Co. However, things as they are, this is a desperation game for U-Dubs. If they want to make a bowl game – period – this is a game they have to win. If they can’t beat a midpack Iowa team that scored 5 points against Iowa State, they’re done. I don’t see them rolling over this early in the season. They must win this one and they will.
Final score: Wisconsin 31, Iowa 17.

And now, part one of my sports tripleheader doubleheader* on Saturday.

That's really the face of South Florida football?

Syracuse (+24) at #19 South Florida:
Apparently George Selvie is going to be back this week. Great. Thanks for resting up for a few weeks so you can try and get a couple layups against Corey Chavers and pad your sack totals.

If I’m Mitch Browning, here’s what I want to do. Run the ball right at him all game. Bury him. He’s a smaller defensive end coming back from injury, so go right after him. I’m not advocating attempting to hurt him, but we have to exploit any weakness we find. If Delone and Doug are a go this week, all the better. A power rushing attack at a potentially still gimpy pass rusher gives us a shot to keep the Grohawk on the sidelines, studying phonics or whatever rudimentary class he’s enrolled in this semester.

Speaking of containing Grothe… I know GRob says we can’t defend him the same way we did WestVa last week, but I say give it a shot. If you have such a great idea of another way to stop him, you probably should have tried it before allowing him to lead an offense averaging over 500 yards a game in his two starts against us. So I say stay with what we did last week and add a wrinkle or two to stay ahead of the opposition. What’s the worst that can happen? They torch us again? I’m comfy rolling the dice on that and seeing if this creative scheme we had last week actually has any legs.

Let’s keep it close on Saturday, men. I’ll be at the pirate ship getting sloppy.
Final score: South Florida 38, Syracuse 17.

*Just received email notification that there has been a time change for one of the events for Saturday, which is now in direct conflict with another. Thanks for sucking ass, Dodgers.

Meet A Talented High School Senior Flirting With The Orange That Will Sign Elsewhere

Introducing Travelle Davis, a running back from Apopka, FL. Described on ESPN.com by Scouts, Inc. as a “major sleeper” in this year’s recruiting class, Davis would apparently be a nice fit to our back rotation next year when we no longer have the pleasure of watching Curtis Brinkley carry the ball. Scout.com had this to say after catching his Apopka High take on South Panola (MS):

A true scat back type runner. Great slasher who thrives in the open spaces. Will need to work on size and strength for the next level.

Sounds intriguing. He would definitely fill a void were he to end up in Orange, though it remains to be seen how Antwon Bailey will fit into the plans next year already. He figures to be the scat back of a bunch that includes Delone Carter, Doug Hogue and Averin Collier. Doesn’t hurt to be really deep at a position such as running back though, as our 2007 campaign proved.

As you will be able to tell below, the jury is far from unanimous when deciding the level of player Davis will be in college. Based on what I read in this ESPN RISE piece from September it seems that most of this can be attributed to his playing second fiddle to a teammate committed to play for RichRod in Ann Arbor next season. Here’s hoping Davis stays firmly under the radar the rest of the season.

Profile
Travelle Davis
Height: 5-10    Weight: 180 lbs.
Position: Running Back
ESPN.com rating: 78 (#52 RB)
Rivals.com rating: 5.3/2 stars (Not ranked)
Scout.com rating: 1 star (Not ranked)
Also considering: Cincinnati, Kansas State, UAB, Middle Tennessee, New Mexico State, Southern Illinois

CoachWatch – A Nearly Unstoppable Force of a Column

We’re six games into this Syracuse football season, and a fifth Orange loss means a fifth installment of CoachWatch. We’ve had one job open up this week in D-1A as Clemson dumped perennial underacheiver Tommy Bowden. Hopefully Syracuse isn’t too interested in trying to bring him in.

There are a few coaches that DG should be looking at rather closely as he organizes his shortlist of candidates. Here’s my top five this week.

#1 – Butch Jones, Central Michigan (No Change)
Butch and the Chippewas continued to vanquish other coaches frequenting the CW rankings, this week taking down Al Golden and Temple. Now 3-0 in the MAC this season, CMU has a big showdown with another MAC team unbeaten in the conference this weekend against Western Michigan. The dangerous Ball State Cardinals loom late in the season. It’s a shame for these 3 teams that they are all in the same half of the MAC, though the winner seems pretty likely to roll through the conference championship game.

#2 – Randy Edsall, Connecticut (Last Week: 3)
The Huskies had a bye this past week to lick their wounds following a first-class beatdown in Chapel Hill. When you allow three blocked punts in a season, things are bad. When you allow three to one player in a single game, that is the definition of a special teams meltdown. Coach Edsall creeps up a spot this week in the rankings as it seems that the repeated gaffes are more fluke than trend and because UNC is looking strong so far. We’ll see how Connecticut responds to the loss this week at Rutgers.

#3 – Turner Gill, Buffalo (Last Week: 4)
So I realize that the Bulls have now reeled off three straight losses since winning on a Hail Mary against Temple. Looking at their opponents though, it’s fairly understandable. After playing tough at Missouri, the Bulls lost by two at Central Michigan and lost in OT this week to MAC-leading Western Michigan. Gill has absolutely turned this program around, though they may not have the wins to show it right now. The next step for him as a coach is making sure his team wins the games they should – that means Army and Kent State. They should be able to pick one up against Ohio, Miami-OH, Akron or Bowling Green as well. Five wins for the Bulls would be pretty miraculous.

Give a warm, Orange welcome to CoachWatch's latest contestant.

#4 – Chip Kelly, Oregon Offensive Coordinator (LW: Unranked)
I am officially drinking the Kool-Aid. With an offense averaging almost 40 PPG this year, clearly he knows a thing or two about how to score points in bunches. Four quarterbacks have combined to throw for 1336 yards for the Ducks this year – not amazing. However, it’s been an orgy of big plays rushing the football. Oregon has already put up 1926 yards and 25 TDs on the ground, and they still have five games left. It’s worth noting that the remaining five game slate will be moderately more difficult, but the overrated Pac-10 should provide plenty of chances for Kelly’s offense to pad their resume.

#5 – Skip Holtz, East Carolina (LW: 2)
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. If you had called a 3-3 start for the Pirates at the start of the season, most would have found it to be a reasonable projection, just not for it to happen as it actually has. What a missed opportunity this has been. Granted, the ride was bound to end eventually – but a complete derailment seemed unlikely. They haven’t even been competitive since their OT loss to NC State, getting handled by both Houston and Virginia. With Memphis, UCF and Marshall still on the schedule, it’s going to be a battle just to get bowl eligibility.

Also considered: Lane Kiffin; Al Golden (Temple); Bronco Mendenhall (BYU); Chris Peterson (Boise State); K.C. Keeler (Delaware); Dan Mullen (Florida – O. Coord.); Mike Locksley (Illinois – O. Coord.)

Week 7 Recap

So that was a lot closer than we though, huh?

Just when it looked like Syracuse might stun the college football world, a potentially game-winning drive fizzled inside the West Virginia 10. With a shot to get the ball back to its offense with time for another crack at the endzone, the Orange defense made the biggest of what was only a few mistakes Saturday and allowed Noel Devine to stick the dagger in our upset hopes.

A loss like this is devastating to players, having stayed close and for the most part shoving around West Virginia on both sides of the ball. It’s definitely an upsetting way to have your chances for a win go out the window also as a fan, but I don’t think I’m alone when I say that if this team had played the way they have the last two weeks (save the 4th quarter against Pitt) that GRob’s job security would still be up for debate. Without a miracle run through the balance of conference play, he surely will be leaving his perch on the hill. But you absolutely can’t hang this one on the coach. His team was ready to play and they executed about as well as we could have hoped for. Would it have been different if Pat White played? Almost definitely – Mountaineers fans must really get an appreciation for what he is able to do when he’s not playing. The Orange defensive game plan seemed to work so I doubt it would have been a blowout.

I’m just happy that they’re back to playing competitive enough football that we can get to the 4th quarter of games against good teams and still be able to sniff a win. It’s not a feeling I ever anticipated borrowing from my Cleveland Browns fanhood, but all those years of training I got as a pro fan are helping out now. Clearly, they still have quite a way to go. But when you’re at the bottom, there’s not really another option. I am becoming cautiously optimistic about our chances to not get run out of the building this weekend at Raymond James Stadium (or the “Ray-Jay” as I like to call it) in Tampa where I will be in attendance.

Some more thoughts on the game:

• Derrell Smith stood out to me all game, looking almost unblockable at times. I was surprised to hear he had beaten out Parker Canty for the starting job this offseason, but he’s clearly proving why so far.
• Speaking of players who impressed, Lavar Lobdell had another solid day. He’s taking advantage of chances the past couple of weeks, catching passes we’ve grown accustomed to watching him drop – including a highlight-reel-worthy catch on the opening drive. Clearly though, Donte Davis continues to be the leader in the receiving core for the Orange, adding seven catches Saturday to bring his team-leading total to 21 for the season.
• I didn’t disagree with Cam Dantley’s read on the interception. Almost every angle seemed to show that Fiametta was in space between the zones. The major problem was the fact that Cam horribly underthrew the route and West Virginia LB Nate Sowers made an outstanding play. Without either of those 2 factors, it was a Syracuse first down and we likely come away with a 9-7 lead or better.
• Mercifully, it appears the coaches are finally attempting to do something about Ryan Howard’s struggles in the punt return game. He has shown the ability to return kicks; his ability to field kicks and judge them while in air remains inadequate at best. Bruce Williams may not be as dynamic as a returner, but we are hardly in a position to sacrifice field position and the occasional turnover to try and hit home runs. A steady, reliable 8 yards a return that you can set your watch to is much better for this team right now.
• I am begging the coaching staff to stay with this style of defense for at least the game against the Bulls this weekend. We can line up in our base and try to bash heads with Connecticut and Rutgers if they want, but with a spread offense utilizing the read option this personnel package worked. Kevyn Scott solidified the corner spot against the run and Max Suter added some needed speed as well. Let’s see if we can give USF some hell on Saturday.

The picks this week were decent but my record in the Road Dog Upset remains Syracusian, now standing at 1-6 on the year. I picked 4 out of 6 winners correctly but I am glad I was wrong about the UT/OU game. Interesting note from this weekend’s action: Desmond Howard said on College Football Live that he’s not a believer in Penn State yet. I am unaware which Big Ten race he is watching, but it sounds like it’s the one for 11th involving his alma mater.

I’ll be back later in the week with a little preview for the USF game and we’ll talk about a player who will undoubtedly leave the Orange recruting staff with an excrutiating case of the blueballs.